Political and economic trends for Brazil in 2020 are in the ABES ranks

One of the attractions of the 2019 ABES fraternization event, held at the Attimo Restaurante, in São Paulo, on December 9, was the holding of a talk show with the participation of economist José Roberto Mendonça de Barros and political scientist Ricardo Sennes , who evaluated the perspectives of the Brazilian political and economic scenarios in 2020. The debate was moderated by the experienced journalist Silvia Bassi.

In the evaluation of Mendonça de Barros, who foresees low growth in Brazil in 2020, some changes need to happen simultaneously for the country to move on a path of sustainable and continuous development from 2021 onwards. One of the fundamental points is the balance of Brazilian public accounts, as the current situation has affected governments in all instances (municipalities, states and the federal government), severely compromising the capacity for public investment. In his analysis, the economist said that a first and important step was taken with the Pension Reform, but it is necessary to reduce the payrolls of the administrative machine, which has absorbed most of the tax collection. A second aspect is the recovery of investment capacity, which currently revolves around 16% of GDP, with resources to be directed, especially, to the infrastructure and civil construction sector, in addition to areas such as sanitation and transportation.

José Roberto Mendonça de Barros

Ricardo Sennes highlighted the question of the governance of the current presidential administration, which would need to be able to create stable political majorities to run a development project. "Bolsonaro is a politician who has always acted in isolation, does not have a mediator profile and is now going to his eighth political party," he noted. He further explained that the political renewal in the National Congress was not as significant as it was pointed out shortly after the majority elections in 2018, with the Chamber of Deputies and the Federal Senate being very fragmented, due to the number of political parties, making it even more difficult to form majorities. on the parliamentary side. In this context, the performance of federal deputy Rodrigo Maia will maintain its relevance in defining the agenda and conducting votes. As 2020 is a year of regional elections and given the need for Bolsonaro to structure his new party, the Alliance for Brazil, Sennes sees the possibility that the president will not prioritize issues related to economic reforms, but rather the conservative agenda, with related issues customs and values in order to meet the demands of part of its supporters.     

Ricardo Sennes