Gartner, Inc., the world leader in research and advice for businesses, announces its key strategic forecasts for 2020 and beyond. Gartner's projections examine how the human condition is being challenged as technology creates varied and ever-changing expectations for humans.
"Technology is changing the notion of what it means to be human," says Alvaro Mello, Managing Vice President at Gartner. “As workers and citizens see technology as an enhancement of their skills, the human condition also changes. CIOs (Chief Information Officers) must understand the effects of change on users and redefine expectations about what technology means in their organizations.”
Enhancements, decisions, emotions and companionship are the four aspects that are creating a new reality for the human use of technology. "In addition to offering insights into some of the most critical areas of technology evolution, this year's predictions help us move beyond thinking about mere notions of technology adoption and take us deeper into the questions surrounding what it means to be human in the world. digital", evaluates Mello.
Gartner analysts presented the top ten strategic forecasts during the Gartner IT Symposium/Xpo 2019™, which takes place in São Paulo until Thursday (31).
By 2023, the number of people with disabilities employed in organizations will triple, due to Artificial Intelligence and emerging technologies, lowering barriers to access – "People with disabilities constitute an untapped pool of critical talents", says Mello. “Artificial Intelligence (AI), Augmented Reality (AR), Virtual Reality (VR) and other emerging technologies have made work more accessible for employees with disabilities. For example, restaurants are starting to utilize robotics technology with Artificial Intelligence, which allows immobile employees to control robotic waiters remotely. Organizations that actively employ people with disabilities not only cultivate the goodwill of their communities, but also have 89% higher retention rates, a 72% increase in employee productivity, and a 29% increase in profitability.”
By 2024, identifying emotions through Artificial Intelligence will influence more than half of the online ads people see. – Artificial Emotional Intelligence (AEI) is the next frontier for AI development, especially for companies hoping to detect emotions to influence purchasing decisions. Twenty-eight percent of marketers ranked Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (ML) among the top three technologies that will drive future marketing impact, and 87% of marketing organizations are currently looking for some level of customization, according to Gartner. Computer vision, which allows AI to identify and interpret physical environments, is one of the top technologies used for emotion recognition and has been ranked by Gartner as one of the most important technologies in the next three to five years. “Artificial emotional intelligence enables digital and physical experiences to become hyper-personalised, going beyond clicks and browsing history and showing how customers feel at a specific moment of purchase. With the promise of measuring and engaging consumers based on what was once considered intangible, this area of 'empathic marketing' has enormous value for brands and consumers when used within proper privacy limits," explains Mello.
By 2023, 30% of IT organizations will extend BYOD (Bring Your Own Device) policies with "Bring Your Own Enhancement" (BYOE) options to promote Augmented Humans in the workforce – The concept of “Augmented Workers” gained traction in social media conversations in 2019 due to advancements in Wearable Technology. Wearable devices are driving productivity and workplace safety in most industries, including the automotive, oil and gas, retail and healthcare industries. While wearables are just one example of physical enhancements available today, humans will look for more such enhancements that will improve their personal lives and help them get their jobs done. "IT leaders certainly see these technologies as impactful, but it's customers' desire to physically improve themselves that will drive adoption of these technologies first," says Mello. “Enterprises need to balance control of these devices in their initiatives while enabling users to use them for the benefit of the organization. This means embracing and exploring the benefits of human physical enhancement through implementing a BYOE strategy.”
By 2025, 50% of people with a smartphone but no bank account will use a mobile-accessible cryptocurrency account – Major marketplaces and social media platforms will start supporting cryptocurrency payments by the end of next year. At least half of the world's citizens who do not use a bank account will use these new mobile-enabled cryptocurrency account services offered by global digital platforms by 2025. This will open up business opportunities for buyers and sellers in growing economies such as Sub-Saharan Africa. and Asia-Pacific.
By 2023, a self-regulatory association for oversight of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning designers will be established in at least four of the G7 countries. – “Regulating products as complex as Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning algorithms is no easy task. The consequences of algorithm-scale failures, which occur in key functions of society, are becoming more visible. For example, flaws related to Artificial Intelligence in autonomous vehicles and aircraft have already killed people and attracted a lot of attention in recent months,” explains Mello. The public's demand for protection from the consequences of malfunctioning algorithms will, in turn, produce pressure to assign legal responsibility for the harmful effects of the algorithm's failure. The immediate impact of process regulation will be to increase cycle times for the development and implementation of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning algorithms. Companies can also prepare to spend more on training and certification for professionals and on process documentation, as well as higher salaries for certified personnel.
By 2023, 40% of professional workers will orchestrate their enterprise application experiences and capabilities, as they do in the music streaming experience – The human desire to have a work environment similar to their personal environment continues to increase – a place where they can organize their own applications to meet personal and work requirements in a self-service manner. The consumerization of technology and the deployment of new applications have raised employee expectations of what is possible from their corporate applications. “Apps used to define our jobs. We are currently seeing organizations designing application experiences around employees. For example, cloud and mobile technologies are freeing many employees to walk into an office and are instead supporting a 'work anywhere' environment, surpassing traditional business models,” says Mello. "In the same way that humans personalize their streaming experience, they can personalize and increasingly engage with new application experiences."
By 2023, up to 30% of the world's news and video content will be authenticated as real by Blockchain, fighting Deep Fake technology (which uses Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning to create fake but realistic content) – Fake News represents deliberate disinformation, like advertisements that are presented to audiences as real news. Its rapid proliferation in recent years can be attributed to bot-controlled social media accounts attracting more viewers than authentic news and manipulating human ingestion of information. By 2021, at least the top 10 news organizations will use Blockchain to track and prove the authenticity of their published content to readers and consumers. Likewise, governments, tech giants and other entities are fighting industry groups and proposed regulations. “The IT organization must work with content production teams to establish and trace the origin of company-generated content using Blockchain technology,” says Mello.
By 2021, digital transformation initiatives by traditional companies will take on average twice as long and cost twice as much as anticipated. – Business leaders' expectations for revenue growth are unlikely to be met from digital optimization strategies, given the cost of modernizing technology and the unforeseen costs of simplifying operational interdependencies. This operational complexity also impedes the pace of change, along with the degree of innovation and adaptability required to operate as a digital business. "In most traditional organizations, the difference between digital ambition and reality is big," notes Mello. "We expect CIOs' budget allocation for IT modernization to grow by 7% per year through 2021 to try to close this gap."
By 2023, individual activities will be digitally tracked by an “Internet of Behavior” to influence the eligibility of people around the world for benefits and services for 40% – Through facial recognition, location tracking and Big Data, organizations are starting to monitor individual behavior and link that behavior to other digital actions, such as buying a train ticket. The Internet of Things (IoT) – in which physical objects are oriented to do a certain thing based on a set of observed operational parameters against a desired set of operational parameters – is now being extended to people, known as the Internet of Things. Internet of Behavior (IoB). "With IoB, value judgments are applied to behavioral events to create the desired state of behavior," explains Mello. “In Western countries, the most notable example of a usage and behavior-based business model is property and casualty insurance. In the long term, it is likely that almost everyone living in a modern society will be exposed to some form of IoB that merges with the cultural and legal norms of our existing pre-digital societies.”
By 2024, the World Health Organization (WHO) will identify online shopping as an addictive disorder as millions abuse digital commerce and face financial stress – Consumer spending through digital commerce platforms will continue to grow by more than 10% per year through 2022. The ease of shopping online will cause financial stress for millions of people as online retailers increasingly use Artificial Intelligence and personalization to effectively reach consumers and get them to spend unlimited income they don't have. The resulting debt and personal bankruptcies will cause depression and other stress-bred health problems, which is attracting the WHO's attention. “The side effects of technology that promote addictive behaviors are not unique to consumers. CIOs should also consider the possibility of lost productivity among employees who put off work to shop online and other digital distractions. In addition, regulations supporting responsible online retail practices may force companies to provide notices to potential customers that they are ready to shop in virtual environments, similar to casino or cigarette companies,” explains Mello.
About Gartner IT Symposium/Xpo 2019™
O Gartner IT Symposium/Xpo 2019™ is the world's most important meeting between CIOs and IT executives. This event provides independent, objective content with the authority and weight of the world's leading IT research and consulting organization and provides access to the latest solutions from leading technology providers. CIOs and decision-makers rely on Gartner IT Symposium/Xpo for insights into how their organizations can use technology to address business challenges and improve operational efficiency.
Visit: https://www.gartner.com/en/conferences/la/symposium-brazil
EN 
PT 
