By Rodolfo Fücher, President of the Brazilian Association of Software Companies (ABES)
Despite the numerous variables that may negatively impact the economy in 2022, the IT sector is expected to grow above the Brazilian GDP, as has been the case historically. For this year, there are several factors that should continue to shake the Brazilian economy, such as elections, political and economic instability, fiscal deficit and significant devaluation of the Real, which will put pressure on the values of commodities, such as fuel, food and inputs. from you. We must also consider other factors that bring instability at the world level, such as the uncertain end of the pandemic period and a possible armed conflict in Ukraine. The consequences range from implications for mobility and production capacity in all corners of the planet, especially in China, to a new shortage of products, a global inflationary risk and an increase in the cost of money, directly affecting the investment potential of the productive sector. and consumption. In short, as the professor once said Roberto Rigobon, from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), which I had the pleasure of meeting during a course on global macroeconomics, in moments of crisis, everything depends on the ability of the economic area to calibrate corrective measures in the face of political expectations. Because measures that bring immediate results usually severely impact the future of the economy. And, in an election year, a real economic-political clash is created.
However, on the other hand, this scenario requires greater efficiency in every way, and an unprecedented search for discoveries of new models and disruptive business opportunities, reinforcing the thesis of the so-called Digital Transformation, in which technology plays a central role. . A strong indicator in this regard is the volume of investments in startups that took place in 2021, in the order of US＄ 9.4 billion, almost triple more than in the previous year. Another interesting factor is to see “open innovation” as one of the main strategies adopted by companies in the search for innovation – according to the PwC's Innovation Benchmark 2021, of the 1,222 companies analyzed, 61% use open innovation, compared to 34% using a traditional R&D center. It is worth remembering that startups use technology intensively.
When we look at the performance of the technology sector, compared to the Brazilian GDP, we clearly see this potential. In 2020, the growth of the IT sector was 23% compared to negative GDP of -4%, in 2021. Preliminary data points to a growth of more than 15% in 2021, while the GDP should show a growth of 4%. This upward trend should be in the double-digit range, something close to 10% in 2022, while experts point to negligible growth for the Brazilian economy, close to zero, placing Brazil's performance among the three worst in the world, among 173 countries. analyzed by the World Bank, second only to Myanmar (-0.8%) and Equatorial Guinea (-0.6%). The world average of GDP growth should be in the range of 4%.
In the next 10 years, we should see an even greater impact on the use of technology in all sectors and aspects of society, due to the confluence of three main vectors: 5G, Artificial Intelligence and Quantum Computing. But, for the sake of reflection, let's focus on something more tangible: the trends that should contribute to the growth of the IT sector in 2022. They are:
Expansion of the use of the public cloud: preliminary information indicates a growth in the order of 45% compared to 2020, closing the year 2021 with US＄ 3 billion. This growth should remain strong in 2022, where SaaS is expected to reach the range of U＄ 2.5 billion, PaaS US＄ 1.3 billion and IaaS US＄ 1.9 billion. An important reference is the use of the public cloud, in CRM applications, still in the range of 60%, and ERM below 20%.
Information security: the market for security solutions should close the year 2021 at US＄ 1.5 billion, with an expectation of growth in the order of 30% in the cloud segment for 2022. Factors such as the beginning of penalties linked to LGPD (General Law of Data Protection), added to the exponential growth of digital platforms/applications with intense use of data, should lead the market to implement more robust security solutions, in order to avoid possible data leaks and, consequently, fines and millionaire indemnities.
Strong investments in AI, Big Data, BI: Surveys of CIOs point to these segments as the second most important in terms of investment priority after information security. AI is expected to generate around US＄ 464 million in 2021, a growth of 30% which is expected to hold in 2022, and Big Data and Analytics Software something around US＄ 1.9 billion in 2022, growing by 14%.
IoT – not a negligible market: Expected to reach US＄ 9.5 billion in 2022, a growth of 20% compared to 2021, with almost half of hardware, software getting around US＄ 2 billion and services close to US＄ 3 billion.
Start of 5G implementation: It is expected to further drive the use of various technologies such as AI, VR, Robotics, IoT, Edge Computing, as well as countless other applications, adding business on the order of US＄ 2.7 billion between 2021 and 2022.
Despite all the opportunities around the IT sector, the lack of skilled labor remains the main bottleneck for its growth. Lately, as a result of the pandemic and the migration to virtual work, Brazilian professionals have been harassed by companies located outside Brazil, causing a true “virtual migration” of talent, pushing up wages, making the shortage of hand even worse. of work. For this reason, ABES – Brazilian Association of Software Companies defended the extension of the payroll exemption and signed Law 14,288/21, enacted on December 31, 2021 – an important component to ensure the competitiveness of 17 sectors of the economy and vital to the maintenance of more than six million jobs. Firm in its purpose of contributing to the construction of a more digital and less unequal Brazil, in which information technology plays a fundamental role in the democratization of knowledge and the creation of new opportunities for all, in an inclusive and egalitarian way. ABES will continue fighting in 2022 for the guidelines that ensure a business environment conducive to innovation, ethical, dynamic and globally competitive.
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