*By Fabrício Orrigo
Agribusiness is a national power, but it left a little to be desired in 2022, dropping its share of GDP from 26.6% to 24.8%. Now, in 2023, the projection of the Brazilian Agriculture and Livestock Confederation (CNA) in partnership with the Cepea study center, from Esalq/USP, is even lower. The projection is that Brazilian Agribusiness GDP in 2023 will fall by almost 1%, closing at R＄2.6 trillion compared to R＄2.62 trillion in 2022.
The forecast for agribusiness in 2024 is to remain stable, compared to 2023. Following research and the market, it is necessary to note that there are several factors that will directly influence this year's results, such as the relationship between product prices and production costs. production in the different segments, the magnitude of the resumption of agroindustry and the climate effects, mainly El Niño, on Brazil's productivity.
To stand out, the sector needs to allocate investments in the right places, to obtain better performance in the midst of business opportunities. Below, I address some points of attention for the Agro market to have on your radar.
Artificial intelligence
Artificial intelligence (AI) has been widely implemented in agribusiness, which can use it for a variety of purposes, from climate predictions and harvest data, to large-scale market data processing. The results can be used to speed up decision-making at various stages of the planting process.
Another use is monitoring planting. With the help of images and information provided, AI helps identify pests, diagnose diseases and suggest phytosanitary control measures. Artificial intelligence can also support resource management based on the history of activities and consumption parameters, offering insights into better use of inputs.
Predictive maintenance of equipment can also be improved by AI, an important differentiator in day-to-day life in the field. Through the integration of devices and constant AI analysis, it is possible for the system to generate preventive maintenance alerts for machines, ensuring that there are no unexpected stops and, consequently, stops or delays in planting or harvesting.
Corn ethanol bioenergy
According to projections by the Safras e Mercado consultant, 2023 will record a harvest of 84 million tons of corn and it is estimated that, in 2024, the volume will rise to 88 million tons. Of this demand, 14.5 million tons were used to produce corn ethanol and, for next year, the forecast for use is 18 million tons.
Several plants were created during the year, even preparing to take advantage of next year's demand. To meet them, there are systems that monitor, control and manage the entire production cycle, from planting to harvesting, from logistics to the industrial process of corn and sugar cane. The generation of bioenergy involves a very technical and rigorous process, so efficient monitoring is essential.
Commodity trading
Brazil is an immense producer of commodities and, despite the decline in the Central Bank's price indicators, the tendency is for negotiations to be boosted in 2024. As it has daily and extremely dynamic trading, with some risk and influence factors, it is Agricultural companies need to have marketing and pricing tools that adhere to this reality. Today, the market offers specific solutions for automating pricing calculations, based on floating indices and pricing model assumptions. These processes guarantee a safer and more optimized operation, with smarter and more agile contract management.
Rural credit
Analyzing the scenario apart from the Federal Government's credit granting program, the Agricultural Policy Secretariat of the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (Mapa) registered 128,584 contracts from producers, corresponding to R＄131.8 billion in financing released by financial institutions. Rural credit is an important part of the modernization of national agriculture, as most producers use the resources to invest in equipment and technologies that increase their operations.
Sustainability
The ESG agenda has strengthened and in the context of Agribusiness it takes on an even greater proportion. More sustainable cultivation practices, efficient use of water resources, precision agriculture and carbon credits are topics on the agenda. There are tools that can support producers to implement sustainable practices in the field, efficiently managing natural resources and agricultural inputs. There are also solutions that already calculate the impact and carbon generation, in order to promote future compensation or the sale/purchase of this credit.
Another factor that contributes to this need for agricultural transformation is the consumer. We see a growing emphasis on the search for organic and reliably sourced food, from plantations that employ sustainable practices. In this sense, rural products can stand out through the implementation of blockchain, a tool that maps and guarantees the entire “displacement” of the material in all its phases, and can be read through a label with a 2D code (QR Code).
Agribusiness is navigating a dynamic scenario, driven by technology, the search for more sustainable practices and developments in negotiation policies. The convergence of these trends creates significant opportunities for innovation, promoting a more efficient, transparent agricultural sector aligned with the expectations of society and the global market. For this, it is worth being prepared.
*Fabrício Orrigo, director of Agro products at TOTVS
Notice: The opinion presented in this article is the responsibility of its author and not of ABES - Brazilian Association of Software Companies
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