Brazil is about to end a 40-year period with two lost decades. Although we still have to count the year 2019 and 2020, but already based on the economists' expectations, it is not difficult to expect that we will have another disappointing decade, with a meager growth, around 9%, practically half of the year. that we grew up in the 1980s, known as the lost decade, when growth was just over 18%.
This finding was disclosed in a recent study published by Goldman Sachs (the same one that created the term "BRICS ", in 2001) called "Brazil: Two Lost Decades in Forty Years - Could it lose half a century?", in which they compared the GDP growth in Brazil in three periods of 40 consecutive years (1900 - 1940, 1940 -1980 and 1980 - 2020).
We know that in such a long period, and in such different historical moments, it is not so simple to use GDP as a metric for assessing economic development, but these results are undoubtedly a provocation to evaluate what we want from Brazil in the future.
Between 1900 and 1940, Brazilian GDP grew somewhat around 461%, with growths exceeding 50% in each of its decades. Already between 1940 and 1980, GDP growth was even higher and exceeded 1.436%, which gives an average annual growth of 7%. We are close to closing the third 40-year period, 1980 to 2020, When we must not reach 140% GDP growth, still having in the last decade of this period (2010-2020), a performance that was half the result of the 1980s, historically considered as the lost decade in Brazil.
Not that I fully agree with the simplistic comparison of GDP between the periods mentioned in the study, which, incidentally, I need to do justice and mention that the authors also make several reservations to this concept, but it is difficult to remain indifferent with the findings disclosed, especially if dealing with Brazil, which is the country where we live and that we want to leave in the best possible way for our children and grandchildren.
It is high time that Brazilian society mobilized to turn the tables and make things change. I understand that the changes have already started with the fight against corruption that we have seen in recent years and we need to support it to continue. We now need to put pressure on Congress to approve the New Pension Plan (note that I have already changed and did not purposely call it Pension Reform). Not that New Welfare alone will solve all the country's problems and bottlenecks. But without it, we won't even be able to survive economically in a short time. We need to mobilize and clarify to the people around us that, eventually, they are still not convinced of the need for the approval of the New Pension, and to ensure that the majority of the population presses the Congress to approve a viable Pension for Brazil.
Once the New Pension Plan is approved, we will proceed to further improvements to ensure the legal security and economic viability of investing in Brazil. Among them, we can mention the Tax Reform, which is also urgent, the Political Reform, the reduction of the State, among so many other actions that we can discuss in order to improve the business environment in Brazil.
I've already started my part. In addition to being a persistent optimist about the future of Brazil, I have tried to clarify to people around me the importance of approving the New Pension to ensure the country's viability in the near future and that it will be a big step for the economic recovery to happen in fact, in addition to being an important milestone for the other changes that we will need to promote in order for Brazil to become a truly attractive country to the business world.
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