*Por Marcelo Batista Nery
It is widely known that the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) was officially established on May 29, 1936, through the regulation of the National Institute of Statistics (INE). However, its creation was instituted by Decree Law No. 24,609, on July 6, 1934. Leaving the historical controversy aside, in light of this occasion and the imminent release of the population and household results of the 2022 Demographic Census, it is opportune to discuss the importance of our data in the development of public policies at the national level, and especially in the field of Information Technology (IT) applied to these policies.
But before starting this discussion, it is essential to address a crucial question: So, let's “take the elephant out of the room”!
It is important to remember that the interviews for the construction of the Census, which should have been carried out in 2020, were suspended due to the coronavirus pandemic. In addition, the budget allocated to the Census was drastically reduced, which made the work of the IBGE more precarious and compromised the carrying out of the census in 2021. There was also little time for training the census takers and delays in their remuneration, which resulted in dropouts and setbacks in data collection, particularly the rejection of respondents.
One of the main challenges encountered during the 2022 Census was the high number of people who refused to answer the questionnaire. This refusal was more common in neighborhoods with higher incomes, but it was also significant in areas where the population is more vulnerable. Successive delays, delays and problems in carrying out the census compromised its quality, including due to political polarization during the 2022 elections. IBGE census takers had to deal with the spread of false news about the Census, threats and lack of confidence in the science (in a veritable fake news infodemic). These problems restrict the reliability and accuracy of the data, resulting in a situation of statistical invisibility, that is, in many citizens and households not being adequately represented in the collected information.
The postponement of the Demographic Census in Brazil, originally scheduled for 2020, has had a series of significant impacts. One of the direct consequences of this delay is the lack of updated data on the Brazilian population. The lack of recent information makes it difficult to identify specific needs in different regions, define priorities and adequately allocate resources. This information is essential to support public policies related to health, education, transportation, housing, security and other areas that directly affect everyone's quality of life.
Another relevant impact is the situation faced by researchers, academics and institutions that depend on census data for their analyzes and studies. The lack of recent information can harm the production of scientific knowledge, the carrying out of research, scientific innovations and the formulation of development strategies.
We must not underestimate the role of census surveys as an important instrument for the diagnosis of macro-social conjunctures and local inequalities – with the advantages and disadvantages of sampling aspects (I do not intend to enter into this controversy, although it is important to have it registered). Demographic data represent fundamental information for understanding and planning government actions. The collection and analysis of these data allow obtaining a more accurate picture of the population, its socioeconomic characteristics, territorial distribution and other relevant aspects. In addition, this information is essential to support political decisions, aiming to meet the needs of governments, non-governmental organizations, media, private initiatives, individuals, families, schools and society in general. This leads us to reflect on the potential of Information Technology in the face of the current situation.
In the present context, IT plays an increasingly relevant role in government actions: it allows for the collection, storage and processing of large volumes of demographic data in an agile and efficient manner. This data makes it possible to identify specific patterns, trends and challenges in different regions and periods, in addition to enabling the creation of innovative technological solutions, such as geographic information systems and data analysis platforms, which expand the capacity for monitoring and evaluating public policies. Thus, IT is involved both in decision-making and in identifying needs, according to the offer of technological solutions applied to public policies.
However, the unreliability of data compromises the ability of IT systems to identify specific needs of regions and understand the reality and singularities experienced by social groups. This can lead, from the perspective of public agents, to the lack of adequate direction of government actions and the waste of resources. In addition, from the users' point of view, the lack of reliability reduces the credibility of the available systems and the trust in the institutions responsible for these systems.
Given this condition, it is essential to seek scientific and technological solutions to mitigate or solve the main problems that affect Census data, in order to avoid gaps and distortions in the country's data. Statistical models, for example, developed through data science in conjunction with social science knowledge, have the ability to deal with data variability and imprecision, providing confidence intervals, error margins and significance levels that allow evaluate the uncertainties associated with the results and the propagation of these uncertainties.
The bet is that solutions like this one can make subsidies for predicting events, risk analysis, monitoring and evaluating government actions, among others, more robust. This is essential to prevent public policies from being undermined and the use of information technology from being compromised.
*Marcelo Batista Nery, Researcher at the ABES Think Tank, Technology Transfer Coordinator and Head of the PAHO/WHO Collaborating Center (BRA-61) of the Center for the Study of Violence at the University of São Paulo
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